Thursday, October 25, 2012

Why I Still Think Mitt Romney is Going to Lose This Election

Way back in July ( I came to the conclusion that Mitt Romney was going to lose this election. When I came to that conclusion he still had not picked a vice presidential candidate and he was still pretty far behind in the polls. At the end of August I published a repost that included Paul Ryan’s selection which only reinforced my main point.

So what has changed since my original publication? I originally said “it shouldn't come as any surprise that the Republicans would pick a candidate as "Vanilla" as Mitt Romney. He doesn't step on anyone's toes and everything he says seems to be written perfectly for the crowd he is addressing….it just seems to me, however, that Romney takes it to a whole new level of pandering. He changes so much from state to state, town to town that there is no way of getting a real read on where he stands on anything.” So as you can see some stuff has changed. Romney has definitely shed his “Vanilla” image particularly with his performance in the debates especially the first one. Now I am not saying Romney has become a charismatic savant, I am simply saying that he has proven to be more charismatic then he did four months ago. The charisma has swung many undecided voters. Voters who weren’t quite sure of Romney’s leadership ability, and people who might have been afraid he was going to be an “empty suit” business man type candidate. Although the “flip-flopping” has become even more apparent with his performance in the debate, only highlighting the point that he will play to the crowd to be appealing to as many people as he can.

This week we have seen some very interesting electoral map projection includeing one that has the results of the election being 269 to 269. Now not only does that poll obviously have the president and governor Romney in a dead heat. But there is a very interesting result that could happen if it ends up being a tie like that. According the United States Constitution in an electoral tie for the presidency of the United States, a winner will be determined by the House of Representatives. That means that if the election is a tie, most likely the House of Representatives will select Mitt Romney to be the president of the United States. However the United States senate chooses the Vice President. If the choice goes to the United States senate which is controlled by the democrats then there is a good chance that Vice President Biden could be selected, which would mean Romney would be president and Biden would continue as Vice President. Now obviously this is uncommon and rare but it has certainly happened in American history three times. Also this electoral projection just highlights how close this election could end up being.

So why did I think Mitt Romney was going to lose? I said four months ago “The answer is simple; Romney is forgetting that in order to win the election, he will have to win over independent and moderate voters. Romney has spent so much of his time trying to convince his own party that he is a true conservative that he has actually alienated the base needed to win the election. What made Mitt Romney an ideal candidate in the beginning was his ability to appeal to moderates…..Mitt is going to lose because of a fragmented party. He feels he has to walk a tight rope between the ultra conservative and the moderates….now, theoretically Romney is going to get the Republican vote. No matter what, Obama is "hated" by the ultra conservative republicans so they are voting for "anything but Obama"….for this election, the Republicans so desperately want Obama out, their minds were made up about who they were going to vote for before Obama even took the oath of office.” This point is more true now then it was four months ago. By picking Paul Ryan he may have excited the Republican base but he has alienated even more of the moderates by enforcing that he is not in anyway a social moderate. This means that he has forgotten that he needs the moderate vote to win this election. Now that the electoral maps and polls are so close between the candidates, those moderate votes are now going to be the key in determining how this election is going to turn out; and it is my opinion that those moderate votes will go to Obama not Romney.

How I ended my post four months ago is exactly how I am ending it now. What I said was true four months ago and it is just as true today as it was then. “Romney won the nomination, so why say stupid stuff like "I've changed my opinion on abortion" or choose Paul Ryan? He has the incredible opportunity to take every single moderate vote away from Obama if he came out in support of abortion and other social issues such as contraception and gay marriage. He could have won a lot more moderate votes if choose a more progressive or moderate VP. Now instead of having a person that balances the ticket. It seems the Republicans are more interested at making a point about not having to compromise there values instead of actually trying to appeal to the moderate Americans who will undoubtedly help them win the election. I think I can take the liberty in saying that most moderates consider themselves "fiscal conservative" and "social liberals". Romney could be the perfect moderate candidate if he would just stop trying to please the GOP. It's not the GOP that he needs to please anymore. He needs to start campaigning for the country, and unless he starts to become more moderate like he really is, then Mitt Romney will undoubtedly lose in November.”

Written by: Salvatore Pezzino Jr.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Debate Preview: Round Two

So needless to say since the last debate there has been a lot of speculation as to who won the first debate between the President and Governor Romney, as well as the debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan. Most of if not all people can agree that the last two debates where some of the most exciting debates we have seen in about twenty years.

I have already concluded that the first debate was a decisive victory for Governor Romney. He came out strong and didn't back down on any issue. He presented his message better then the president, regardless of some inconsistencies and stretched truths. The President was very weak and was not as aggressive as many democrats hoped he would be.

Moving forward to the Vice Presidential debate between Paul Ryan and Joe Biden, it seems Joe Biden decided act completely opposite from the President and be extremely aggressive in getting his message out. So much so that it was perceived to be rude, arrogant, and unhinged. This may have cost him some support as well as being declared the all out victor. Regardless of all that, I believe it is fair to declare the Vice President the victor of that debate. Although he was loud and didn't allow Paul Ryan to talk, the bottom line is that the message was presented better. I have mentioned this to many people and they have told me “of course he sounded better he wouldn't let Paul Ryan speak” or “how was Ryan supposed to get a word in edge wise when Joe was just rambling on”. The point still remains that he didn't let Ryan get his message out. Vice President Biden performed perfectly because he didn't give Ryan a chance to present anything to the American people. So even if you call the debate a draw Biden wins because the expectations for him going into the debate where so low and he didn't let people see a distinction that would help them consider who they are going to vote for. This is American politics, it’s not about how worthy your message is or if it’s right or wrong its how you sell it to the American people. If you look strong people are going to think you are strong and in turn they will believe whatever you have to say.

Tonight’s debate is going to be very interesting. Hopefully tonight’s debate will be just as if not more exciting then the last two debates. It is certainly more anticipated then the first one and should prove to be very informative because the focus tonight will be foreign policy. With the recent attacks and turmoil in the Middle East it will be interesting to see where each candidate stands on the issues.

What you should be looking for first is how the President will react to his performance last debate. Certainly he will be coming out of the gate much more aggressively then he did last time. I believe that they told Biden to be overly aggressive to see how hard they could push without seeming to arrogant. Obviously Joe over did it, but I feel that you will see the President finding common ground between how he performed in the first debate and how Joe Biden performed in the VP debate.

Second thing to look for is how Romney is going to react to his victory in the first debate. Will he maintain the confidence he had in the first debate or will he get too cocky and open himself up to attack from the President? I don’t think you will see Governor Romney being more aggressive then he was last debate. I feel that he caught the President off guard last debate and you know damn sure that the President has dedicated the last week and a half to preparing for this one.

The issues are going to be a key factor during this debate, since the attacks on September 11th in Libya, the competence of this administration to handle foreign policy have been called into question. The on again off again status about the attack being related to terrorism has left the administration looking very weak.

Do not be surprised to hear a question directed towards the president about the attacks and his administrations response. Also don’t be surprised to hear Romney using the attacks to prove that president is weak on terrorism and responding to terrorism. You will also hear Romney talking about the President’s apologist platform, and that “he will never apologize for the United States or our Freedom”.

The president has the unfortunate problem of having to defend his foreign policy tonight when he has a pretty strong record of acting when he needs to. Two key examples would be taking out Gaddafi and Bin Laden. When action needed to be taken, he did it. One of the most frustrating GOP talking points I have been hearing is the downplaying of the President taking out Bin Laden. Of course the President wasn't there but he gave the order. An order that Clinton was incapable of giving in the nineties when he had the chance and an order that Bush couldn't give because he couldn't find Bin Laden. To downplay the president not being the one to take down Osama Bin Laden is the most childish pieces of rhetoric that the GOP has produced in a long time. The president has also been very strong on the sanctions against Iran when it comes to the development of nuclear weapons. He has also come through on his promise to start removing troops from Iraq.

The biggest issue facing our country in terms of foreign policy is a nuclear Iran and I believe it will be one of the biggest things debated tonight. It’s an issue that both sides basically agree on but will fight to see who can make themselves sound better. Biden and Ryan debated the issue rather quickly during the VP debate, basically setting an outline for what each of the Presidential candidates will say tonight. Romney wants prove or will attempt to prove that it was the Republicans who fought for the sanctions against Iran and that the nuclear threat is an imminent one. Obama wants to prove or attempt to prove that he fought for the sanctions against Iran and that it was in spite of the Republicans in congress not because of the Republicans in congress. Finally Obama will try and downplay the threat of Iran getting a nuclear weapon and that it is because of his sanctions they are further away from getting one.

Needless to say, tonight will at least be more interesting because foreign policy is so relevant right now. All of the items that will be discussed tonight are fresh in everyone’s heads. People are ready to hear what they are looking to hear and when it comes to foreign policy in this day and age people want the strongest leader they can get. Tonight is very important to both candidates, because how they are perceived tonight is how the world is going to perceive them tomorrow.

Live tweeting debate opinions and analysis (Mostly just funny comments)

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

It Doesn’t Take Common Sense to Know….That Mitt Romney Won the First Debate

So I went into the debate with an open mind. Not knowing really what to expect, but after watching the debate, I must say that it was a decisive victory for Mitt Romney. The mainstream news and media will undoubtedly take sides but coming from a person in the middle I can say that Romney clearly won.

You can disagree with Mitt Romney, his platform, and policies but you cannot disagree that he presented his message much better then the president. He came forward and hammered away at the president, his polices, and his actions over the past four years. Mitt Romney called the president out on many topics and often left the president stunned and rambling. For example there was a moment when Romney was going after the president rather aggressively and he turned to the moderator and said “Jim you may want to move on to a different topic”. I would say that the president might have underestimated Romney and didn’t prepare as much as he should have.

In my lifetime or at least the time in which I have been politically aware, I have never seen a Republican have such a strong performance in a debate. You have to remember that the 18-25 age groups have only experienced Bush and McCain debates. So I believe that the undecided 18-25 and even the misinformed 18-25 might have been swayed by Mitt Romney’s performance. Watching the president in 2008 might have been very appealing to people who were voting for the first time. This time around Romney made the Republican platform sound appealing. He just might get the bump on the polling and electoral maps that he needs to either make it an even matchup again or possibly edge out a lead.

That brings me to my next point. I believe that Mitt put forward a really strong performance. I believe that he will get a pretty huge bump in the polls and electoral numbers for one or two news cycles, but there is still a lot of time left before Election Day. I think we will see strong numbers in favor of Mitt Romney and then it will be back to business as usual. I think that the democrats are hoping and praying that Biden slips and falls so that he can’t make things any worse. That is going to be an interesting debate and should continue the good news cycle for Romney, if Ryan can put up a performance like his running mate.

The next debate between Romney and Obama is going to be interesting. You know damn well that Obama is going to be a hell of a lot more prepped for the next one and I am positive you will see a much closer matchup, as of now its 1-0 Romney.