Thursday, October 25, 2012

Why I Still Think Mitt Romney is Going to Lose This Election


Way back in July (http://goo.gl/2Q8Dc) I came to the conclusion that Mitt Romney was going to lose this election. When I came to that conclusion he still had not picked a vice presidential candidate and he was still pretty far behind in the polls. At the end of August I published a repost that included Paul Ryan’s selection which only reinforced my main point.

So what has changed since my original publication? I originally said “it shouldn't come as any surprise that the Republicans would pick a candidate as "Vanilla" as Mitt Romney. He doesn't step on anyone's toes and everything he says seems to be written perfectly for the crowd he is addressing….it just seems to me, however, that Romney takes it to a whole new level of pandering. He changes so much from state to state, town to town that there is no way of getting a real read on where he stands on anything.” So as you can see some stuff has changed. Romney has definitely shed his “Vanilla” image particularly with his performance in the debates especially the first one. Now I am not saying Romney has become a charismatic savant, I am simply saying that he has proven to be more charismatic then he did four months ago. The charisma has swung many undecided voters. Voters who weren’t quite sure of Romney’s leadership ability, and people who might have been afraid he was going to be an “empty suit” business man type candidate. Although the “flip-flopping” has become even more apparent with his performance in the debate, only highlighting the point that he will play to the crowd to be appealing to as many people as he can.

This week we have seen some very interesting electoral map projection includeing one that has the results of the election being 269 to 269. Now not only does that poll obviously have the president and governor Romney in a dead heat. But there is a very interesting result that could happen if it ends up being a tie like that. According the United States Constitution in an electoral tie for the presidency of the United States, a winner will be determined by the House of Representatives. That means that if the election is a tie, most likely the House of Representatives will select Mitt Romney to be the president of the United States. However the United States senate chooses the Vice President. If the choice goes to the United States senate which is controlled by the democrats then there is a good chance that Vice President Biden could be selected, which would mean Romney would be president and Biden would continue as Vice President. Now obviously this is uncommon and rare but it has certainly happened in American history three times. Also this electoral projection just highlights how close this election could end up being.

So why did I think Mitt Romney was going to lose? I said four months ago “The answer is simple; Romney is forgetting that in order to win the election, he will have to win over independent and moderate voters. Romney has spent so much of his time trying to convince his own party that he is a true conservative that he has actually alienated the base needed to win the election. What made Mitt Romney an ideal candidate in the beginning was his ability to appeal to moderates…..Mitt is going to lose because of a fragmented party. He feels he has to walk a tight rope between the ultra conservative and the moderates….now, theoretically Romney is going to get the Republican vote. No matter what, Obama is "hated" by the ultra conservative republicans so they are voting for "anything but Obama"….for this election, the Republicans so desperately want Obama out, their minds were made up about who they were going to vote for before Obama even took the oath of office.” This point is more true now then it was four months ago. By picking Paul Ryan he may have excited the Republican base but he has alienated even more of the moderates by enforcing that he is not in anyway a social moderate. This means that he has forgotten that he needs the moderate vote to win this election. Now that the electoral maps and polls are so close between the candidates, those moderate votes are now going to be the key in determining how this election is going to turn out; and it is my opinion that those moderate votes will go to Obama not Romney.

How I ended my post four months ago is exactly how I am ending it now. What I said was true four months ago and it is just as true today as it was then. “Romney won the nomination, so why say stupid stuff like "I've changed my opinion on abortion" or choose Paul Ryan? He has the incredible opportunity to take every single moderate vote away from Obama if he came out in support of abortion and other social issues such as contraception and gay marriage. He could have won a lot more moderate votes if choose a more progressive or moderate VP. Now instead of having a person that balances the ticket. It seems the Republicans are more interested at making a point about not having to compromise there values instead of actually trying to appeal to the moderate Americans who will undoubtedly help them win the election. I think I can take the liberty in saying that most moderates consider themselves "fiscal conservative" and "social liberals". Romney could be the perfect moderate candidate if he would just stop trying to please the GOP. It's not the GOP that he needs to please anymore. He needs to start campaigning for the country, and unless he starts to become more moderate like he really is, then Mitt Romney will undoubtedly lose in November.”

Written by: Salvatore Pezzino Jr.

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