Thursday, December 20, 2012

2013 The Year of Opportunity for the Unemployed?


As the year 2012 comes to an end, many Americans, about seven millions Americans are reflecting back at a lost year. There are seven million Americans currently in this country who do not have regular employment. Which leaves millions of Americans asking and wondering “Will 2013 be a better year to look for work?”. 

The unemployment rate in this country is currently at 7.9%. Many economists and political analysts feel that the number speculated by the department of labor is much higher. Many reputable and legitimate economists feel that many Americans have simply stopped looking for jobs. Many say around fifteen million unemployed Americans have stopped looking for work, simply because there aren’t jobs out there. Basically, because the labor department bases the unemployment rate on the number of people searching for jobs through their networks, and not other commercial and private search sites such as Monster.com or Indeed.com, the number could be closer to 15%-20%. That combined with the people who have stopped looking for work entirely you are looking at an unemployment rate close to if not over 30%. 

Those numbers are of course speculation and can be inflated as a scare tactic, for example some members on the right would like you to believe that with some fancy math the unemployment rate is over 50%. Now obviously that number is extreme and even over 30% seems to be a little inflated but just ask around? It doesn’t take a thirty year political analyst to know that the unemployment rate is over 7.9%. Everyone knows at least two people who are unemployed, or underemployed, many of whom lost their job this year. So it is my opinion that the actual unemployment rate is closer to 15%-20%, with all of the above factors considered. 

What’s causing the unemployment rate to be so high? Well there are a lot of answers ranging from very complicated to very simple. One of the first reasons is kind of common sense, and that is businesses just don’t have the money to employ people. Company’s are downsizing and laying off divisions of people just to maintain a bottom line and stay in the black. There just aren’t as many well paying jobs out there because company’s are very afraid of the unstable economy.

The next reason is directly related to the the previous one, because there aren’t a lot of jobs, there is a flooded job market. With the classes of 2011 and 2012 searching, the market has become completely flooded with people searching. There are young adults from the class of 2011 who are still looking for a job, and the ones who where lucky enough to find jobs have most likely been laid off. Then the class of 2012 graduates expecting an open job market and there is quite literally nothing out there for them. So now you have recent college graduates searching for jobs and taking menial labor jobs, a millennial unemployment rate at nearly 40%, 48% of the classes of 2011 and 2012 combined are unemployed, and of the supposed 7.9 percent unemployed nearly 42% are under 25 years old. This is the first generation in American history that is not doing better and may not do better then the previous generation. What all of this means, is that this is an employers market. Employers can be very selective about who they hire and they can choose people whose resumes’ are exactly matching the job description. 

Another large contributor to the unemployment rate, is that 2012 saw the lowest retirement numbers in American history. Millions of Americans decided that they weren’t going to, afraid to, or absolutely couldn’t retire because of the economy. This has left millions of jobs that should have been vacant and filled by someone younger or eager to work, occupied. So because people aren’t retiring, now the people who can’t find jobs have to look elsewhere. 

Which leads me to the final reason. There are no jobs out there. Yea simple and obvious I know, but the bottom line is that there are no more American jobs. There is no such thing as American industry anymore. Now I have spoken about college graduates, and people with years of business experience but the unemployment problem is not just confined to the city. The heartland is the hardest hit. The areas of the country where higher education isn’t easily accessible and typically the youth turns to farming and industry, but now those jobs aren’t even there. The farming jobs that generations of families have had are becoming nonexistent and industries such as steel, auto, oil, and coal are being shipped over seas. Our country imports more then it exports and corporations make there money on what they can buy and sell for the highest profit instead of what they can make and sell for the highest profit. Nearly 80% of the United States wealth is concentrated within seven banks. The rest is spread throughout various industries the main one being agriculture. So the jobs, just don’t exist.

With the fiscal cliff looming, unemployment benefits are apart of the items to be slashed on December 30th. That means nearly two million Americans will be completely without any source of income come January 1st along with three million more set to lose there benefits from February to April. This combined with no job prospects, and more people beginning to search for work, the outlook for 2013 is not good for those who are currently unemployed. Bottom line, 2013 doesn’t exactly look, like the year of opportunity.

5 comments:

  1. Although economists debate on issues, its not all speculation. We can't possible say the rate is close to 30%, because a fundamental law of econ is that when people stop looking for work/are out of work for a certain period of time, they exit the "workforce." So, if a million people yesterday just went 2 yrs (or whatever the arbitrary limit is) without finding a job, they are NOT considered unemployed by any agency, whether it be private or government. They are considered outside of the labor force, and thusly don't fall in any statistic regarding the labor force (working & unemployed people.)

    Maybe this whole shitstorm should tell economists that this group outside of the labor force isn't just retirees anymore, but people of all ages. I believe Ted Kruggman said it?: booyakasha!

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    1. Hi. I am doing a social studies fair project on this topic and found your site very helpful. How should I credit you for your ideas? Should I use your blogger name with the title of your article and your site? Thanks.

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    2. On the works cited page you should put my name, Salvatore Pezzino Jr. , the title of the article, and a link to the article on the blog. If your quoting me in the project you can just use my last name, or some politcal scientists say, or as this writer said. It all depends what you are doing. I have a degree in politcal science so you can credit me however you want. I hope this helps, let me know if you need anything else. Long story short you can use my full name lol Salvatore Pezzino Jr.

      As side note, I run a website and business that edits papers and writing for students. It's theeditorguys.com so when your all done we can give your writing an edit and make sure it has polished feel.

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  2. Hi- thanks for for your response. I really appreciate all the help you gave me. Would it be all right if I asked you some questions? You seem very knowledgeable on this subject.

    Is there a way to prove,with statistics, that the reported January 2013 unemployment rate of 7.9% was deflated?

    I don't know anything about stocks. Aren't they related to consumer spending? If stock prices are down, does that automatically mean that consumer spending is down? Does that point to unemployment or underemployment as a factor?

    Thank you very much for your time. It's really nice of you.

    Brit

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  3. No Problem!

    Ok so there aren't any statistics exactly, but you can infer that the numbers are being deflated because of how the numbers are collected. I suggest you go to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics website to read about collection methods but the long and short of it is this. You have to consider the numbers that the BoLaS leaves out, for example they calculate the unemployment rate by how many new unemployment claims are filed plus the rest of the unemployment claims. They also take a survey from 60,000 households for information on labor activities. With fancy math and other methods of information gathering they spit out the unemployment rate. Now what they are leaving out is people who don't qualify for unemployment, people who have exceeded their benefits, people who have simply given up looking for work, and the underemployed. Also a survey 60,000 people does not reflect the nearly 400,000,000 people in the United States.

    With unemployment being the way it is and the stock market being at an all time high it is a dangerous combination. At one time the stock market might have reflected consumer behaviors but it simply doesn't anymore. The stock market now does not reflect the health of the economy. Stocks can be at an all time high and consumer wealth and unemployment can be non-existant. This is because wealth is concentrated in the wrong places i.e within the banking system. They don't sell or trade tangible items they trade debt and other stocks. There has and still is a large influx of government cash being pumped into the market increasing the risk of inflation, devaluation of the dollar, and creating the appearance of a growing economy. The stock market is no longer an indication of how well or bad the economy is doing. They have created a self sustaining system that ensures that they aren't affected by the actual market.

    I hope this wasn't too confusing. And I kind of rambled on there. Please let me know if I answered your questions or if you want me to be more specific on something.

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